Ep 203 Transcript

The following is a largely AI-generated transcript for our Episode 203. Excuse any errors, we’re trying to catch up on these and need to sort out a workflow. Want to help make our transcripts better? Let us know if you can help our support us on Patreon.

[00:01:21] Ian Bushfield: You had, Scott, an interview with Lisa Lalande, the CEO of the Century Initiative on why Canada should have a hundred million people

[00:01:32] Scott de Lange Boom: Joining me today is Lisa Lalande from the Century Initiative. Lisa, welcome to PolitiCoast.

[00:01:39] Lisa Lalande: Thank you for having me.

[00:01:41] Scott de Lange Boom: Uh, so let’s get started. What is the century initiative?

[00:01:45] Lisa Lalande: Sure. Uh, the century initiative is really a group of Canadians committed to Canada’s future. We’re. We’re motivated by a vision for the Canada that we will leave future generations for us.

[00:02:01] That means a Canada that’s diverse, resilient, prosperous at home and influential abroad. But we recognize that to bring that vision to life, to bring that vision of Canada to life, we need to start now, prosperity is going to take a lot of planning. It’s not going to be easy. Uh, so specifically century initiative advocates for policies and we support initiatives that would increase Canada’s population to 100 million by 2100.

[00:02:30] We believe that with the right approach to population growth. Uh, the writer, the pro the right approach to population growth is necessary. If we want to enhance our economic strength at home, but also our influence abroad. We believe these are necessary to create a better Canada for future generations.

[00:02:49] Scott de Lange Boom: So right now there’s about 37 and a half million Canadians. Why is that? Not enough? Uh, what are, what is a low population cost in Canada right now?

[00:02:58] Lisa Lalande: So our population is not just low. It’s also aging. So that means that the compassion that we Canadians pride ourselves on will quickly become unaffordable.

[00:03:10] So in other words, we’re not going to be able to afford the Canada. We know today. In practical terms, what does that mean? We enjoy tremendous social supports and programs. Think about our healthcare, our educational systems to our pension and unemployment programs, our roads, our bridges, our infrastructure, all of these are supported by largely supported by tax dollars.

[00:03:37] Tax dollars require a healthy. Employed productive population when that’s creating jobs, earning paychecks and contributing through tax dollars, household spending investment. So fewer people working means fewer dollars for the programs and support that we value as Canadians. And right now our domestic birth rate simply isn’t enough to close the gap.

[00:04:01] So I’m gonna throw some numbers out, but I think they’re important. Um, in the seventies, the number of working people for each person over 65 was six to one. Today it’s four to one by 2036. It’s going to be two to one. So that means that we’re only going to have for every two people we’ll have to, the people supporting for each elderly dependent person.

[00:04:23] And our safety net was largely designed for, uh, for a time when costs could be shared more broadly. And there was some recent studies that have shown that they’re now projecting even fewer babies will be born as a result of the pandemic. So given this immigration is going to be the only realistic approach for us to protect our prosperity as a country.

[00:04:47] So century initiative, our perspective is we have to act now we can’t do this later. We need to leverage Canada’s strengths, our openness to immigration, our value for social services, including early childhood support to get ahead of these trends in order to build that prosperity. That for future generations, our children, our children’s children, generations that we’re not ever going to know.

[00:05:11] Scott de Lange Boom: Mostly just a case of trying to get the GDP numbers and the tax revenue up. Or is there kind of more to why larger Canada would be beneficial for everyone?

[00:05:22] Lisa Lalande: That’s a really great question because we focus so much on the goal of a hundred million by 2100 often we get challenged with it’s. Is it just the numbers?

[00:05:32] And it’s not just the numbers. It’s a big part of our argument, but it’s more than that. Let me explain this. A hundred million scenario provides the greatest positive impact on our demographic challenges that. That we’re facing, um, and will lead to higher economic growth. So yes, it is about GDP growth. Um, we, based on some research, we predict that if we steadily grow to a hundred million, our GDP growth would rise to 2.6% and that would be sufficient to significantly reduce the burden on the government revenues required to pay for healthcare old age, other services.

[00:06:11] And if it’s done, right. So I want to emphasize the right part. It would mean that younger workers, it would mean more younger workers, more innovation entrepreneurial-ism and dynamism, and the Canadian economy as well as international influence. So the reason for the longer timeframe to get there is simple.

[00:06:29] So I’m going to emphasize now what I started with, which is it’s not just about a hundred, no, you people it’s about getting there in a smart, sustainable way in a way that benefits everyone. So in addition to create increasing our numbers, we need to plan for how. As a country, uh, we can get there. So that means planning for, and investing in things like urban development and infrastructure to support a larger population, the kinds of employment and entrepreneurship programs to attract and grow the kind of talent we need for the jobs of today, but also the jobs of tomorrow education and early childhood supports and skills and training to name a few.

[00:07:11] So I think, you know, one of the questions that we often get when I post and people email me, um, Canadians have legitimate concerns right now, uh, especially given COVID-19, um, there, and they have legitimate concerns about increasing the number, our population size, but also the number of immigrants coming to Canada.

[00:07:33] We need to create space for that conversation. But we also need to help people see and understand the economic and social benefits of managed population growth through immigration. And we need to ensure that the benefits of increasing our population through immigration are widely felt. So that is going to take planning, uh, planning, longterm thinking, and planning, um, and engagement with many different groups that could help us understand what’s needed to advance that change.

[00:08:04] And we’re not talking about. A massive jump. We’re talking about proposing gradual annual increases, not too far off from what the government has already targeted, essentially moving towards pinning our annual immigration target to 1.2, 5% of our population. So that’s just under today. It’s just under 1%.

[00:08:26] This may sound high to some, but we’ve actually done this before. So immigration actually peaked in the early 19 hundreds a year that we had one year in 1913 that saw over 400,000 immigrants arrive, which was more than 5% of the population we’ve done this. We’ve done it reasonably well. And we can do it again.

[00:08:46] Scott de Lange Boom: Yeah. I actually was reading, um, that Saundra’s put the maximum Canada. That was something that really jumped out at me was how different and. Much larger. The population growth was back in that time when Lauria was PR uh, prime minister, as well as he thought we needed 40 million people to kind of realize Candace potential, which now we’re just kind of getting to right now.

[00:09:09] So that’s quite interesting, but I want to jump into the numbers a bit here, noticeable that 100 million and the end of the century, 2100 or both. Pretty round numbers. How were they chosen? And is the reason why we shouldn’t be aiming for a hundred million by 20, 75 or a hundred million, maybe in 21, 10.

[00:09:33] Lisa Lalande: Right. I mean, that kind of builds on my, my. And so that I just gave, which was, you know, we drew on, uh, some research primarily from the conference board of Canada, but also on, on other sources. And it identified that the a hundred million scenario provides the greatest positive impact on our, um, Demographic challenges.

[00:09:54] And it also pointed to, um, higher economic growth for us. And so based on that work, uh, we actually using that as our North star. Um, and we are suggesting the gradual annual increases so that we can actually, as we grow, we can consider the system level changes. The wraparound supports that are needed. The important questions that we have to.

[00:10:19] Ask and answer around how do we accommodate larger population size in our cities? How do we make sure that we have the right, um, employment and skills training programs? And we make sure that we have childcare. You know, if your parents right now with kids, you’re like, you know, you’re feeling it. You need that more now than ever.

[00:10:37] So how do we make sure that we’re, we’re managing this growth properly? And so what century initiative is advocating for this North star goal? A hundred million by 2100 and we’re simultaneously saying, but let’s get it right. Let’s do it. Right. And let’s work in partnership, uh, to make sure that it happens properly.

[00:10:56] Scott de Lange Boom: So we’re on two, right? You mentioned you want to grow the population sustainably, but that’s something that I always see come up whenever this idea of a larger population is discussed is. Well sustainability and how it relates to climate change. Canada is one of the highest per capita carbon emissions.

[00:11:13] How do we reconcile a grown population with the need to fight climate change?

[00:11:18] Lisa Lalande: So climate change, isn’t just about population numbers. It’s also about how we use our resources and the choices we make, uh, in a country that is as sparsely populated as Canada, we’re forced to use inefficient and highly polluting forms of transportation.

[00:11:35] So greater population density would allow us to make the economic and environment environmental case for using more energy efficient technologies for transportation. For example, second to building, um, a low carbon economy requires scale innovation and capital and coping. Yeah. The effects of climate change will be very expensive.

[00:11:58] The cost of these shifts are going to be to both public and private sectors will be huge. So we need a strong fiscal base to meet our environmental commitments. And this depends on population growth. I picked

[00:12:11] Scott de Lange Boom: a lot of 10, so yeah. Stuff like high speed rail, for example, can’t really work. If you just have a very large dispersed population, that kinda what you’re doing that.

[00:12:19] Lisa Lalande: Yeah. So, um, you know, population density could create nodes of economic activity. They can foster economic innovation, productivity growth. Um, one of the things that, you know, one of the questions that we get. Is where would Canadians live? Like I was second work. Uh, we can’t all go to Toronto or Vancouver.

[00:12:38] I live in Toronto. I understand, um, you know, how expensive it is and how difficult it is sometimes. Um, so we’re exploring, but we are exploring the concept of mega cities or urging land use infrastructure. Economic development policies that drive greater population density in our cities and regions across Canada, we believe planned a properly planned, greater density is energy efficient to your earlier point, reduces environmental impact delivers a high quality of life for residents.

[00:13:09] Um, there are regions across the country with tremendous potential and that would become. Oh, the larger population, uh, creating jobs, driving innovation, but I want to emphasize because I’m also from a small town in Northern Ontario, rural communities are and have long been a pillar of the Canadian economy from the agriculture sector on.

[00:13:31] And we need to ensure that the importance of rural communities stays in place. What we’re saying is that, you know, we recognize that cities are under pressure and resources are tight, particularly because of COVID-19. So to be successful, what we’re saying is that communities need to have hot, to have modern high quality infrastructure offer affordable housing and convenient public transportation.

[00:13:53] Yeah. Attract talent and investment and nurture innovation. Provide a vibrant and inclusive cultural life. They have to feel secure and welcoming and there they have to be environmentally sustainable. So when we go back to your earlier question, you know, is it, is it just the numbers? Is it just GDP growth?

[00:14:10] And I think that that’s really shortsighted and I think it has to be both an economic argument and also about our wellbeing. Uh, and we believe that the, they, it doesn’t have to be an, a one or the other and, and, or, or it could be both.

[00:14:24] Scott de Lange Boom: Yeah, I think that makes a lot of sense. Uh, so I want to touch base on the pool literal factors related to expanding, uh, urban density.

[00:14:33] So it’s an issue I care quite a bit about, but. It’s also very contentious, like the fights at the city councils over every small development or big, or even the big plans, they all get pretty contentious. And there’s a lot of resistance at the local level to change and growth. A lot of city councils are, tend to have a lot of people on them who, for whatever reason, aren’t particularly fond of growing the cities.

[00:15:01] How do you. Plan on dealing with the kind of political resistance that this proposal would bring?

[00:15:08] Lisa Lalande: Well, that’s a good question. Um, I think, you know, one of at the heart of century initiatives model is partnership convening, identifying gaps of research gaps, practice gaps, opportunities to test new approaches.

[00:15:26] One approach that we’re taking, particularly in the area of urban development is partnering locally, partnering with organizations who are grappling with these questions and convening. Organizations groups together, too. Explore how we might best do this. So how do we develop a 50 year infrastructure plan, for example, how do we, uh, how do we fund that?

[00:15:51] Uh, and what are the approaches needed and how, and what do we test to make that happen? And so there is no sort of magic bullets, silver bullet answer. It’s more about. Starting the conversation and supporting efforts to explore how that might happen in practice.

[00:16:10] Scott de Lange Boom: I see a lot of times at the local level here that a lot of conversations get started, but when they actually get to.

[00:16:17] The vote at city hall, it tends to get pretty contentious. Do you have a view on how that could be reduced or bypass? Is there a role for the provinces to use their inherent powers over, uh, cities to maybe shape things a bit better?

[00:16:33] Lisa Lalande: Yeah. I mean, I think that, um, You know, I can, I can give an example of what we’re working on right now as a way to inform the discussions, because I think that some of it has to be in, um, identifying practical opportunities, bringing in, um, the, you know, the people responsible for making some of these decisions.

[00:16:55] Uh, you know, we’re working closely with evergreen on, um, an RFP, RFP. Urban futures program. That’s looking at a 50 year infrastructure program and that’s, that’s working with, um, uh, local government municipal government, uh, and other partners, uh, as a way to move the conversation forward. Um, and so that’s one way that we’re tackling it.

[00:17:18] Um, and I think that, um, it is a complex and it’s also a complicated piece. Um, but I think it’s about having the conversation, having the right information. Prototyping and testing new approaches and then bringing people in who are the decision makers early on, who can help drive that change.

[00:17:35] Scott de Lange Boom: Okay. So I want to circle back a bit to the question of how we get to this a hundred million, uh, person, Canada.

[00:17:44] Uh, so you’ve. Discussed immigration quite a bit. Uh, is, do you see mostly immigration, uh, or would there be efforts to increase, uh, bursting Canada too? Is it kind of on the other, both.

[00:17:56] Lisa Lalande: Immigration will be a key driver of population growth and that’s, and the reason why is that our fertility rate, uh, our replacement level, uh, is insufficient.

[00:18:06] So what that actually means is that, um, if we want. If we want people to have more children than we need to encourage that with investments and support, that would be, allow that to happen. So our fertility rate right now is a 1.54, and it’s well below the replacement level of 2.1. Uh, so that’s what I was getting at.

[00:18:24] So we, um, right now, Uh, we know that right now, the lack of these supports is one of the factors that contributes to the decision not to have more children, but we also know that the data shows mixed results in countries that have tried to incentivize a higher birth rate, uh, and while financial support and other nudges boost the fertility rates slightly, uh, it is almost certainly not going to be enough to keep Canada’s population at the same level, let alone grow.

[00:18:54] So immigration will be critical. To our population growth. That’s why we say you’ll often hear us say or see written in us, right. That, uh, it’s simple math, uh, immigration is critical to our population growth. So how do we get to a hundred million? Canada is we believe Canada is on the right path. The government of Canada announced an increase in immigration level targets, a three year plan in 2019, it was 330,800, three 41 and 2020, and then three 15 2021.

[00:19:28] Uh, and in addition to that, so not just the. The, uh, the numbers, but Canada also was using a broad set of policies to enable growth. So new investments in infrastructure changes to the immigration system to provide faster access to top talent, enhancing foreign skills recognition, increasing family unification measures, and also, uh, more inclusionary policies, uh, to advance gender equality.

[00:19:55] But I think, you know, the pandemic has challenged those plans. Uh, the, because of childhood restrictions, Canada is 2020 plans. So it was meant to be 341,000 permanent residents, uh, permanent resident missions. It’s we’re not going to meet it halfway as of halfway through the year. So as of June 30th, permanent residency was granted to only 84,000 people.

[00:20:19] And that was just so that’s just under 25% of the annual target. So the government’s going to be really challenged in making up the shortfall. Our position century initiative is advocating for at minimum, the existing targets be met and piloting increased annual admissions.

[00:20:37] Scott de Lange Boom: Okay. So how has COVID changed your approach on what Canada needs to do?

[00:20:45] Lisa Lalande: Well, As I mentioned it, we are still advocating for the same multi-year targets. And, um, I don’t believe I, I mentioned them earlier, but for good measure, uh, 400,000 in 2022. So that was going to be only moderately up from the government target of three 61, 420,020 23, 450,020 24 and then four 75 in 2025.

[00:21:11] What that actually means is just pinning the annual immigration target. Two, 1.25% today is just under 1%. Uh, so we are still advocating for that. I think what we’re saying now is. The government still needs to get there, but we recognize it’s going to be tough, um, and piloting some approaches and measuring how that is working in terms of increasing.

[00:21:33] Um, those numbers is really important to understand what’s working and what’s not, and in communities, right? So

[00:21:39] Scott de Lange Boom: this is basically an 80 year approach yet and kind of some rockiness in year one and two, isn’t going to really derail things too much. And you’re kind of still focused on that longterm, uh, 2100.

[00:21:52] Yeah. Okay. That’s yeah, there’s been a question. I need a few kind of COVID changes. Everything takes that I haven’t been entirely sold on with, on the longterm and kind of glad to hear that things are still looking ahead kind of, regardless of that. Um,

[00:22:08] Lisa Lalande: I don’t think we have a choice otherwise.

[00:22:11] Scott de Lange Boom: Yeah, completely agree.

[00:22:13] So you’ve mentioned having more global influence and, um, The report, uh, for that your organization put out for a bigger, better Canada, mostly focuses on domestic issues. So I kind of want to get a better sense of what you’re looking for in terms of global participation.

[00:22:34] Lisa Lalande: Yeah. So, I mean, when we talk about international influence, we’re talking about.

[00:22:41] Increasing our influence so that Canada has a stronger voice on issues that matter to us like security climate change the North. Uh, and as we’ve seen recently, global issues, like how do we respond to the pandemic? So what we’re actually talking about is we’re saying that. Population growth will be a critical factor in having a voice on issues globally that affect Canada.

[00:23:06] We don’t go further to say what specific international issues, um, if we don’t have that broader agenda outside of our mandate, but simply to say without an increased population, it makes that potential for influence much lower.

[00:23:20] Scott de Lange Boom: Alright, that makes sense. Um, so I kind of want to now pivot to discussing the North.

[00:23:26] That was one of the sections in the report about, for a bigger Boulder Canada. Um, so right now, most of Canada’s population lives within a hundred miles of the U S borders where all the infrastructure is, does it necessarily, it makes sense to be greatly expanding, uh, Population where there isn’t that existing infrastructure to take advantage of

[00:23:50] Lisa Lalande: our population numbers in the North are small, both in real terms and relative to the rest of Canada.

[00:23:55] I think it’s like 115,000 and this pales in comparison to Russia, which has 2 million people living in the Arctic in Arctic Russia. This has pretty significant implications for the future of the North and its oceans. So Canada must have a strong battle presence on the world stage to advance our interests with respect to this very strategic environmentally sensitive land.

[00:24:21] So it’s put in context, the Arctic oceans receding ice cover, uh, and the regions were warming. Average. Temperatures are already spurring international interest for expanded shipping and mineral exploration exploration in a really sensitive ecosystem. And that has. Pretty significant global climate implications without a Canadian presence in the North they’ll will be diminished stewardship of our economic and ecological future.

[00:24:51] More people are needed to drive the development and growth that we’re going to benefit, and that that will benefit Northern communities. But we know that to do this. We have to ensure that indigenous leadership and vision are maintained. So this means that we must start with conversations, meaningful and respectful dialogue with indigenous communities.

[00:25:14] Uh, but ultimately we need to grow our population. Uh, uh, it has strategic implications for us as a, as a nation.

[00:25:25] Scott de Lange Boom: So yeah, his history has not generally. Being that great when it comes to Canadians and settlers, moving into, uh, new areas, uh, and areas that are predominantly inhabited by indigenous people. If we do expand the Canadian population in the North, how do we make sure the past mistakes aren’t repeated?

[00:25:46] Lisa Lalande: I think a big part of that is recognizing and owning the fact that there were mistakes, uh, and starting with conversation. Dialogue engagement with indigenous communities. And so I don’t, I do not have a straight path to say it’s this or that. It has to start with conversation and engagement, um, as, as a meaningful starting point.

[00:26:10] Yeah.

[00:26:11] Scott de Lange Boom: So in terms of having a larger presence in the North, uh, Past governments have put some emphasis on, uh, building up, uh, Northern ports. Uh, there’s a Naval port currently finishing construction right now. And there’s an Arctic training area up there for our military. But one of the things with a small mill population is it means we just don’t have much resources to put into defense.

[00:26:36] Do you see a role to have a larger population, better support those? Efforts and enhance Arctic sovereignty in that way beyond just a civilian population in the North.

[00:26:50] Lisa Lalande: So, sorry, can you clarify your question? Do you mean enhancing our, um,

[00:26:56] Scott de Lange Boom: Yeah, I guess the Northern presence, you see that as mostly a civilian led, um, mid civilian military, kind of, kind of, where do you see that and how does a larger population which can support a larger armed forces, uh, play into that?

[00:27:11] Lisa Lalande: I think century initiative’s position is simply that we need to bolster our population in the North. We recognize that it’s complex. We recognize that it needs to be indigenous led, um, and it’ll be quite involved. And so our starting point is less raise awareness around this issue. Let’s have a conversation about it.

[00:27:30] And then our next step is how do we partner with the right organizations, uh, communities and leaders to understand what’s actually needed. Uh, in order to make that happen.

[00:27:42] Scott de Lange Boom: Uh, so before I let you go, is there anything we didn’t discuss that you feel is particularly relevant or you want mentioned?

[00:27:48] Lisa Lalande: Yes. So I actually want to end with, I think that we are, we’re all feeling really anxious right now, particularly because of COVID.

[00:28:00] Uh, I think that. We need to meet Canadians where they’re at, uh, and recognize that these are challenges at the same time. We need to, uh, we need to celebrate what we’ve always been proud of, uh, and also recognize that we have a strategic advantage in the world right now. Our openness to immigration, as well as a culture of multiculturalism and diversity.

[00:28:26] We’re recognized as, uh, we’re right. We have recognized the importance of immigration to secure a future. And we are recognized as having one of the leading immigration systems in the world. This ha, this means that we have a strong footing for, uh, in the global, uh, fight for talent. Um, we have the vision, we have the tools to support the strategic advantage, and we should take it, but it’s not just a job for government organizations like century initiative businesses, your listeners, we all have a role to play, um, and advancing what’s really needed to ensure.

[00:29:04] A strong, prosperous Canada. Um, and we need to have this conversation now in order to make this happen,

[00:29:12] Scott de Lange Boom: I’ll say, uh, so where can people go to find out more?

[00:29:16] Lisa Lalande: You can go to our [email protected] and also follow us on our social media channels, whether it’s Twitter, LinkedIn, we’re also on Facebook.

[00:29:26] Uh, so please do follow us and you can also add yourself to our newsletter.

[00:29:33] Thanks so much for having me. I really appreciate it.

[00:29:40] Scott de Lange Boom: Moving onto our next segment. More. No, this week finance minister. Gilmore, no resigned, both as minister and as P. And he’s going to seek the leading role in the OECD. This comes after he was at the center of the wee scandal and. There were many, many leaks to the press about all the ways him and Justin Trudeau weren’t

[00:30:08] Ian Bushfield: getting along.

[00:30:09] Yeah, this was Monday afternoon, Monday evening that it came out. I guess he and Trudeau had a TETA at a meeting on Monday and more know announced, you know, this has nothing to do with, we doesn’t even have to do with our difficulties with each other. This is all about me wanting to be the secretary general of the OACD, something that.

[00:30:32] No one really bought as a real reason to suddenly decide you want to up and leave as finance minister of Canada. So,

[00:30:41] Scott de Lange Boom: yeah, there’s so much wrong with the story about wanting to go lead the OACD. Um, first of all, no one expects. Canada’s going to get a seat in the next round of elections there. We had a.

[00:30:54] She knew one pretty recently. Uh, so that’s weird, uh, potential that no more, no actually is under the ethics rules where he can’t work with anyone. He’s had significant dealings with which, you know, the OACD and finance minister with G seven country. They have significant dealings, uh, for two years and also like really weird to just pack up and leave less than a year after being reelected.

[00:31:24] Ian Bushfield: And you said he was at the center of the wee scandal? I would say he was adjacent to the center. I would say Justin Trudeau should be the center of the wheel scandal. The only person more center to that is Craig and Mark Kielburger.

[00:31:37] Scott de Lange Boom: Yeah. He’s like in the first ring of

[00:31:40] Ian Bushfield: his

[00:31:41] Scott de Lange Boom: like direct family connection,

[00:31:43] Ian Bushfield: his $41,000 vacation bill that he didn’t pay until.

[00:31:48] Scott de Lange Boom: Yeah. A

[00:31:49] Ian Bushfield: couple of

[00:31:49] Scott de Lange Boom: weeks only do the prime minister in being implicated in that.

[00:31:53] Ian Bushfield: But I think the press has largely quieted down on that. There we’ll talk a little bit about some of the leaks that have come out more recently, but the narrative being spun was this desire to. Shift going into the fall. And that’s what the next round of news on Tuesday was as Justin Trudeau announced that Christina Freeland, deputy prime minister, fixer of all things, and the woman who wears many hats is now Canada’s first woman to serve as finance minister.

[00:32:25] Uh, along with that announcement came the announcement that Kay. Parliament will also be prorogued until September 23rd. So all of the committees will be closed.

[00:32:35] Scott de Lange Boom: I think they were actually separated by a little bit of time at all. Okay. Just the same,

[00:32:39] Ian Bushfield: a few hours. They were both on Tuesday. I think when he went to Julie pie at the governor general to, uh, swear Krisha Freeland in as finance minister, he probably also got the probation, you know, just to condense it all to one visit.

[00:32:56] Scott de Lange Boom: Probably, I mean, w we know how much, uh, the governor general doesn’t like to, you know, governor generally that’s the right verb to, to governor general,

[00:33:06] Ian Bushfield: to do her formal job. Yes, that’s fine. We’re not here to talk about her this week. We are here to talk about like the move to Freeland in there, I guess, kills any idea that.

[00:33:20] Mark Carney was going to get the job, at least for now. Um, the prorogation was quite the news though, as. Justin Trudeau was pretty adamant in 2015 that he would never parole. And in fact, I think he was one of the first prime ministers to go on entire parliament without parole going once, even as a matter of like, Hey, it’s a new year, let’s start with the new legislative agenda.

[00:33:45] Scott de Lange Boom: Yeah. So you, before. Discuss the, like the political implications of it’s probably worth just touching on what per roading is, which is basically parliament shuts down everything that is happening right there stops order papers, get wiped, clean. It’s basically a fresh restart, a come prom. It comes back at some point when the prorogation ends, there’s a throne speech, a confidence vote, and then they can get down to the business of legislating.

[00:34:15] Now. Kind of two ways. This actually happens in practice. There’s the, you know, We’re resetting the government, you know, unplugging and plugging back in parliament to wipe the slate clean and kind of refresh everything. And that’s often done in like a very pro former way where your problem is paroled for like the lawn weekend or something.

[00:34:37] Ian Bushfield: Well, here in BC, when the throne speeches introduced on the first sitting of a new year, usually. The propagation ceremony happens like that morning. So there’s actually like two sittings of the alleged legislature on the same day. One is the last of the previous session where they say, alright, we’ve opened, we’ve done our prayer.

[00:34:57] Parag, and then they’re just done. And then they come back in the afternoon with the throne speech.

[00:35:02] Scott de Lange Boom: That’s one way of doing it. The other way is rather than kind of reset in the modem of parliament by unblending plan back in there’s the cutting all the phone lines, approach the projection where you’ve just shut everything down because Parliament’s not a very fun, fun place for you right about now.

[00:35:18] Ian Bushfield: Yeah. This is an effective way to Dodge, confidence votes too. Uh, escape scrutiny of parliamentary committees. Uh, and this is something that we’ve seen now, PR uh, prime ministers of all stripes, uh, Jacques from John crutch and to Stephen Harper. And now Justin Trudeau use.

[00:35:36] Scott de Lange Boom: Yeah. And when they’re in opposition, they all rant against how bad and terrible and undemocratic it is.

[00:35:43] But you know, when there’s an opportunity that suits them as prime minister, they’re quick to jump.

[00:35:48] Ian Bushfield: Yeah. Julie pay at one it’s something you know, meaningful to do with their job. Here’s where you could go. I’ll grant you a prorogation, but you have to bring a throne speech in this afternoon. If that doesn’t work for you, come back with your request that like 24 hours before you’re introducing the throne, speech that and set the new precedent that prorogation can only be very short except in extreme circumstances.

[00:36:13] Scott de Lange Boom: Really good way to trick your constitutional trial.

[00:36:16] Ian Bushfield: It would be fun though.

[00:36:18] Scott de Lange Boom: Art is a constitutional crisis in the midst of other crises. Fun.

[00:36:24] Ian Bushfield: It would be a distraction from we, but now we don’t have to talk about we because no one will be allowed to talk about we at least in the formal setting of parliamentary committees.

[00:36:33] Scott de Lange Boom: Yeah. Now they can still, once parliament presumes restart all that business because the communities are dominated by the opposition because minority parliaments are fun that way. But the, the other thing has been to distract from is. All the COVID that’s going on and the plans to deal with that and the resulting economic fall.

[00:36:54] So parliament not sitting also means parliament can’t legislate things. And if you do need to restart things because you know, legislation has to be quickly moved forward journal crisis to get stuff going, you know, have to go through throne, speech. The confidence vote and all that. Like it’s not booting up the government, isn’t the quickest or easiest thing to do in this case, which makes it just reckless to do it during a crisis.

[00:37:28] Ian Bushfield: I think parliament had technically risen from its weird format. It was running through the summer, which was not technically normal sessions, but like. COVID committee of the whole was running. Um, I think the plan was to return in September anyway. So this is just basically shutting the doors formally until then.

[00:37:51] Now they could recall it sooner. I think if there was an emergency and you know, they can. Fast-track many of these things, a throne speech doesn’t have to be a two hour event. It can be like five words and then they just get a bill and they can push it all through in a day or two if they really need to.

[00:38:09] Um, but that said there were a number of bills on the order paper, like for example, the bill to change Canada’s assisted dying laws, which the government has now asked for two extensions to a Quebec superior court ruling that found part of it. Part of the existing laws to be unconstitutional. Uh, the government now has until December 18th, uh, they had a bill that was at first reading that would have done what they needed to do.

[00:38:35] I didn’t think it was a perfect bill, but it was a bill and now they have to start from zero or else just parts of the law disappear, which I think the government has not wanted to do. So they have work to do

[00:38:48] Scott de Lange Boom: it’s all around just a very messy situation and like, To the extent that this government thinks strategically, which is not always apparent, they, I guess, made the calculation that better to survive politically and turn down the heat a bit, then, you know, do the governing.

[00:39:14] They’re supposed to be

[00:39:16] Ian Bushfield: the other angle on it is the potential that Trudeau sees. That his opposition is weak in many different ways. The conservatives are coming through a leadership race, which we’ll talk about in a second, the NDP are broke the blocker saber rattling, and probably could fight an election, but that’s about it.

[00:39:35] Um, so you can come forward now, say, all right. I’m going to bring forward this throne speech, possibly a full budget in October, give you a bunch of confidence votes and dare you to send me to an election because of Trudeau comes back. Having won an election, either as a kind of status quo or increases at seat count, he can pretty much put we behind him and say, he’s got a new, fresh mandate from the peoples.

[00:40:05] Scott de Lange Boom: Aye. That’s risky and unlikely. When a couple guys die first off the. New COVID EEI thing. That’s replaced in the Serb. It’s coming in on September 27th and that needs to legislation to happen. And, uh, I think we’ve actually mentioned the date, but. The scheduled return of parliament after the propagation is September 23rd.

[00:40:31] So like the NDP at the very least, and probably everyone else isn’t going to torpedo, you know, that just as parliament reopens. Cause I mean the blow back OD leaving millions of Canadians stranded without some sort of benefit in these times would be massive. So that’s not going to happen. And. Same thing with the budget speech, unless they really screw up.

[00:40:58] It’s unlikely that there’s going to be enough in the budget for all the parties to vote it down.

[00:41:05] Ian Bushfield: Yeah, it does give the NDP the strong ability to try to push for something bigger and to push Trudeau to really move forward. Like this is, I think the time when the opposition parties should be playing a little bit harder ball, it’s a risky game all around, but

[00:41:22] Scott de Lange Boom: yeah.

[00:41:23] Ian Bushfield: Like if Trudeau’s talking this big game and if you’re the party that says, we need a big game to be played, you got to take this opportunity. Like if the NDP wants to go for basic income now seems like the time to push for it or something big like that. Uh, but let’s talk, you mentioned, you mentioned the Serb transition plan.

[00:41:43] So this had been talked vaguely about, and we just got the details today for how. Uh, the CRB Canada emergency response benefit, the $2,000 a month that many people were getting like millions of people were getting, uh, and we’re set to not get very soon when it expired, uh, is being replaced by a revamped EDI.

[00:42:07] So the first step is to extend, serve for another four weeks to September 27th. Just to give them some flexibility time to, like you said, bring in the bills they need to bring in these new, additional recovery benefits. the key bit about how most people will go on to EDI is, uh, some of the requirements for EDI are going to drop.

[00:42:29] I think you needed to have worked four or 500 hours in the past year to qualify for AI. Typically that’s going to drop to 120 and you’ll get at least $400 a week, which will be pretty good for a lot of people. I think beyond that, it’s like 55% of your salary. Otherwise there are also three new, additional recovery benefits.

[00:42:49] There’s the Canada recovery benefit, which is. The way to cover everyone. Who’s a precarious worker, a gig worker, someone who doesn’t have like a clear salary self-employed people will qualify for $400 a week and they could get that or up to 26 weeks. There’s the Canada recovery sickness benefit this as far as I can tell is the paid sick leave.

[00:43:12] It’s 10 days for those who are unable to work due to having COVID-19 or needing to isolate for COVID-19. It’s not paid sick leave. It’s COVID sick leave and will be here temporarily. I mean, it’s good that it’s there. Uh, and finally there’s the character recovery caregiver benefit. This is for anyone who needs to stay home because either their kid’s school or daycare is closed or a doctor has told them that you need to keep your kid home because they’re at risk of COVID and they will be eligible for $500 a week as well.

[00:43:48] So, Fairly broad. It seems like it covers most realms. I know the CCPA has been looking very carefully at this transition and whether the revamping will cover everyone who is going to come off observed because it’s a lot of people.

[00:44:07] Scott de Lange Boom: Yeah. But the transition is going to be tough in part because the Serbs done by the CRA the Canada revenue agency.

[00:44:18] But EIA isn’t. So you’re going to have to transfer millions of people from one bureaucracy to another. It’s not necessarily going to be easy and there will probably be people slipping through the cracks on this one. These are

[00:44:33] Ian Bushfield: all also temporary benefits, and there’s a good argument that many of these things or similar things should be more permanent.

[00:44:41] Like if people. Have many medical reasons they can’t to have their children in school or the paid sick leave. We’ve talked about on the show, how important that is just in normal times to ensure people aren’t spreading diseases, which can always affect the most vulnerable. So there’s a good argument, I think for these being more permanent, but at least they’re here for a start and it’s not clear how long they’ll be here though.

[00:45:13] Scott de Lange Boom: Uh, well, I think the EDI tops out at 45 weeks. Start to the floor, um, the better part of a year, I think AI covers and all the permits. So yeah, definitely have absolutely made sense as permit one. Um, the suggestions that, you know, serve becomes like a UBI universal basic income type program. I mean, that’s a very big, massive structural change you don’t want to just rush into and, you know, backup.

[00:45:44] Several weeks now, Angela, our archives, and listen to the interview, Lindsay, Ted’s on all the challenges there. So it’s maybe one of those things that you don’t want to rush into.

[00:45:57] Ian Bushfield: Well, we’ll have to keep our eye on this and see how things progress. I expect. We’ll see lots more rolled out by the province by the federal government in advance of this candy Laden budget.

[00:46:08] That Trudeau is gonna roll out in October.

[00:46:12] Scott de Lange Boom: Uh, uh,

[00:46:16] Ian Bushfield: moving on to our final segment, catching up on the conservative leadership race. We have four candidates coming in on the final days of voting before we find out who gets to replace Andrew Scheer.

[00:46:29] Scott de Lange Boom: Yeah. So leadership race has been going on since the. Lost by Andrew sheer in subsequent resignation is leaving the conservative party of philosophy.

[00:46:39] Ian Bushfield: Let’s be real. It’s been going on since 2015, since Stephen Harper stepped down that election night unceremoniously.

[00:46:47] Scott de Lange Boom: Well, some of the people didn’t run that time. Like Pete Peter McKay sat that last one out. Um, but yeah, uh, so tomorrow or today when you’re listening to this, uh, on Friday, the 21st. 5:00 PM.

[00:47:03] Eastern is when all the ballots have to be in by, we’ll get the answer this weekend on who actually want, and it’s a writing weighted ranked choice system. So every Friday and gets a hundred points, uh, and people ranked their preferred candidates. Last one gets dropped off the ballot, their votes get very distributed.

[00:47:26] So it’s a case where writings really matter in a hundred people in, you know, Uh, writing and cut back. That’s never voted conservative ever can matter just as much as the most conservative writing with 3000 members in Alberta.

[00:47:43] Ian Bushfield: Yeah. It’s a system that makes sense in a country that elects leaders, Alexis governments, based on a single member, plurality writings.

[00:47:52] So you need to be competitive in every part of the country to win. A federal election. So you should reasonably be competitive in every part of the country to win your party leadership.

[00:48:03] Scott de Lange Boom: It’s

[00:48:04] Ian Bushfield: yeah, it’s a messy system. It does make sense.

[00:48:07] Scott de Lange Boom: Yeah. It made sense for coalitional parties, like the conservative party as well, where you have a lot of different factions vying for, and you don’t want, you know, the Western.

[00:48:17] Block of them to dominate.

[00:48:20] Ian Bushfield: Okay, well, let’s run through this quick. There’s four leadership candidates. They’re all conservative. So they’re all obviously against the carbon tax they’re against the bills, see 48 and see 69, the ones they call the anti-pipeline bills. They love balancing the budget, dropping taxes.

[00:48:36] What differentiates these four,

[00:48:39] Scott de Lange Boom: right. Uh, so I guess. First off Peter McKay. He’s the former leader of the progressive conservatives who merged it with the Alliance, uh, under Stephen Harper to form that you can serve at a party of Canada, former justice minister, former minister of national defense.

[00:48:57] Ian Bushfield: He’s got 47 MPS behind him.

[00:48:59] He’s the most endorsed of. Any of the leadership candidates?

[00:49:04] Scott de Lange Boom: Yeah. Widely considered to be kind of the front runner. Uh, generally what little polling we have is generally put them ahead, but not by like such a wide margin that he has a lock on it.

[00:49:15] Ian Bushfield: Yeah. I think he’s got the most name recognition among the broader public, but within the conservative party itself, he’s not run a great campaign.

[00:49:24] And it was a lot of gaps in the early bits. So.

[00:49:28] Scott de Lange Boom: Yeah, it was a running joke among the punditry and Porter as well about just how terrible the Peter McKay campaign was it to say it was amateur hour would be an insult to amateurs, I think, but he’s kind of cleaned it up. And the back half of the campaign seems to have been run fairly well.

[00:49:50] Yeah, decent shot at it, but like front runners in Frank choice leadership votes. Okay. A disadvantage if they can’t clear the first ballot, because anyone who isn’t voting for the front runner generally has a reason not to vote for the front runner, which means. They generally don’t pitch up as much on the second and third ballots.

[00:50:11] Ian Bushfield: Yeah. McKay is also somewhat positioned as the moderate of the candidates. Whereas O’Toole who we’ll get to is a little bit more on the conservative side. And then you have two far right candidates. And so you need to pick up those far right votes, unfortunately, to win.

[00:50:32] Scott de Lange Boom: Yeah. Oh, tool is also like the moderate candidate last time and has definitely shifted more towards the right to kind of differentiate himself from another Eastern Canadian, moderate running in Peter McKay.

[00:50:47] Um, yeah. So Peter Martinez running a pretty generic centrist. A front runner campaign, really putting the emphasis on jobs, jobs, jobs as a bunch of stuff in his platform around that. Plus the usual, uh, conservative party platform promises.

[00:51:11] Ian Bushfield: Yeah, there’s a bunch of wonky stuff in here from changes to RSPs and tax free savings accounts to like, uh, Digital first government services and that’s all fine.

[00:51:25] You know, standard conservative stuff. A bit more on the like no wife, no Walway 5g use the five eyes, you know, invest in that a bit more. He does

[00:51:39] Scott de Lange Boom: go ahead. As, as the intelligence Alliance between us the U S the UK New Zealand and Australia. And in addition to. Not having Walway in any of those countries.

[00:51:50] Mackay wants to basically do a joint project to develop internally within the intelligence Alliance, the five G equipment manufacturer to really make it secure.

[00:52:03] Ian Bushfield: And he’s the one who would say he would March in the Toronto pride parade. I mean, assuming they would let him, because I know some of the pride parades have taken, uh, To being a bit more strict with conservative parties, if they don’t show a commitment to queer issues.

[00:52:21] Scott de Lange Boom: Oh, my case main rival and the other high likely winner of the race is Aaron, a tool being the kind of. In the runner up position the whole time. Um, but very much in a range of winning this thing. Uh, so he ran in the last leadership race, finished a fairly respectable third, uh, just behind shear and Oh yeah.

[00:52:52] Former air force officer, former minister of veterans affairs. Like we talked about at the start of that. He’s very much in like the moderate lane of the conservative party, but because the moderately and was already failed, he kind of shifted a bit more towards the center of gravity of the party.

[00:53:13] Ian Bushfield: Yeah.

[00:53:13] So he’s got the second, most number of endorsements, 38 MPS across the country, including BCS, Mark Dalton. Yeah. And a bunch I’ve never heard of Kenny chew, Tracy gray and Brad vis Chuck straw, former MP and notably Jason Kenney, premier of Alberta, who I think managed to round up a lot of the UCP caucus to also throw endorsements at Aaronow tool.

[00:53:34] Scott de Lange Boom: So it came as an early endorser and really kind of pushed the. They don’t want Peter McKay to be the leader and that’s

[00:53:44] Ian Bushfield: free beers. Don’t tend to weigh in on federal leadership races.

[00:53:48] Scott de Lange Boom: Yeah. It was a little unusual in that way.

[00:53:50] Ian Bushfield: So O’Toole like you say, uh, moderate policies for the large part, but like messaging that tried to play to the.

[00:53:59] More right wing base of a couple of the other candidates. I think, I think the most like aggressive policy he’s putting forward is to invoke the notwithstanding clause to ensure mandatory minimum sentences, uh, stay in place for trafficking, illegal hand weapons, trafficking, illegal handguns, or the most violent crimes such as murder, kidnapping, sexual assault, and notably.

[00:54:24] The courts have repeatedly across the States and Canada found mandatory minimums to be cruel and unusual punishment.

[00:54:33] Scott de Lange Boom: Yeah. So that was the one that really kind of stuck out to me. Well, one of the two things that stuck out to me when I was reading his platform, um, that definitely read me to the base. The other one was well.

[00:54:46] Not red meat, but other food was, he wants to protect our food supply by investing in greenhouse infrastructure, which it’s nowhere near the most important thing in his platform. But like, it just seems really weird because like, Canada’s are massive at sport or food. Anyway, I like. Is the thing that’s stopping us from having a secure food supply or lack of greenhouses in Canada.

[00:55:14] Ian Bushfield: This feels like a policy that there’s like someone on his campaign who is really hung up on and knows this issue inside and out and is like, there is some, there is a specific law or regulation that is preventing 80 people in this country. Maybe it’s a little bit more from building greenhouses faster.

[00:55:33] Yeah, and they want to change that. And it’s not like it’s necessarily good or bad. It’s just weird to people who don’t understand it like

[00:55:40] Scott de Lange Boom: me. Yeah, really good. I would say I grew

[00:55:43] Ian Bushfield: up on a farm, but we didn’t have greenhouses.

[00:55:46] Scott de Lange Boom: Really feels like that sort of thing that like came out of a campaign stop somewhere where someone like taught his ear off about the importance of greenhouses.

[00:55:54] Yeah. Just one of those weird local policies. That kind of, what I like about, uh, leadership races is. In addition to like the very generic stuff that like the party we’ll put in this next platform, you have all of these weird little pet issues,

[00:56:09] Ian Bushfield: a little bit less of a pet issue for O’Toole though, is that he wants to wind down Serb and other emergency benefits on some unknown timeline.

[00:56:18] Uh, but he would replace that with an extended EDI that would cover those who aren’t covered today.

[00:56:24] Scott de Lange Boom: Yeah. So some ways kind of similar to what we were talking about in the previous segment, uh, also firmly auntie Walway wants to onshore a lot of like the creditable, uh, manufacturing stuff for PPE. I wish I was asked, but we didn’t mention in, we were talking about his platform.

[00:56:43] Um, and then the other. Couple of things that stand out for me on there was a support for a small modular reactor industry. So basically getting a new nuclear power industry up and running, but on a much more cost effective, easier to roll out way than past generations of nuclear. And the other one is support for the Kansas union Alliance general.

[00:57:13] Working togetherness of Australia, New Zealand and the UK, which is what’s in this platform last time too. And he’s been like one of the main proponents of, uh, in Canada in general.

[00:57:27] Ian Bushfield: Yeah. I think both of those are ideas that are interesting. I think the specifics kind of kill both of them. Like the reactors.

[00:57:37] I like the idea, but the. Financial feasibility always becomes a question and maybe that’s where the government needs to step in and suck is nice, but we all geographically, aren’t the most logical trading partners, as much as we do share a lot of culture, but you know, again, not necessarily opposed to it, but just like, yeah, fine.

[00:58:02] Scott de Lange Boom: Yeah, on the small reactor they liked. But part of the reason that approach is being taken is because it does get around a bunch of, for the cost, uh, Issues that have played previous generations where like, do you like giant bespoke reactor systems and power plants? Every time you want to build one, rather than a smaller system that you can make just repeated ones and mass production and get them out a lot quicker that one’s okay.

[00:58:30] I think can’t happen without government support, but he’s very worth pardon? A lot of support behind.

[00:58:37] Ian Bushfield: Well, maybe let’s change from the sort of quirky ideas of the primary candidates to the quirky candidates of the secondary level of the race. But we may even need to

[00:58:52] Scott de Lange Boom: revisit that this one, you have your top two who are, you know, as close as we can tell, you know,

[00:59:01] Ian Bushfield: tide.

[00:59:03] Scott de Lange Boom: Yeah. Uh, Neck and neck ish, maybe I had the whole time, like not so obviously, so that he runs away with it. Then you have your next fear

[00:59:16] Ian Bushfield: of less than Louis

[00:59:18] Scott de Lange Boom: Louis and the final tier of that slightly nutty guy that everyone, that most people are trying to embarrass by. And it’s almost certain to finish last.

[00:59:27] Ian Bushfield: So let’s talk about lesbian Lewis. First she’s a lawyer and a former candidate. Without much other political experience, but she is suddenly like, come up and we’ll talk. Maybe we’ll talk briefly. Maybe we won’t quite have time and I’ll just throw the link in the show notes to Eric granny’s analysis of fundraising.

[00:59:44] But Leslie Lewis in this last quarter has pulled in like a respectable amount. She got more donors than Peter McKay and was like a hundred fewer than Aaronow tool with 13,000. You know, 200 to 100 between them. So both raising, you know, all raising like 1.8 to $3.1 million. So she is in there in this last round.

[01:00:11] She has seven MPS endorsing her, including Dean Del Maestro, PLM. You who was the former leadership candidate. I mean, half of the caucus was a leadership candidate in the last election, but. No, he was prominent among them among the social conservatives, John Cummins, Scott Reed, who weirdly is in that list because he’s not really among the more right wing as far as I got, he was more of just the wonky democratic reform guy.

[01:00:36] Scott de Lange Boom: He’s a little idiosyncratic.

[01:00:39] Ian Bushfield: Fair enough. Uh, I guess she does have some, uh, Reform the party internally positions that the others don’t, uh, she’s also got Lyle Olberg, who is a former Alberta finance minister, bill Bennett, the former BC minister of energy and mines and Sam booster Hoff. Who’s the famous, I think he’s the youngest MPP in Ontario.

[01:00:59] And he’s a very notable anti-choice advocate, which I think brings us to the core of like Leslie and Louis’s. Platform one of which is like no hidden agenda. And she says the only way to avoid being accused of having a hidden agenda is to not hide it. And so she does talk about how pro-life she is, and here are the like four ways she would try to ban abortion in Canada.

[01:01:20] And it wouldn’t be a full outright one. It would be like sex, elective stuff and stuff. But you know, if that’s your candidate and apparently she’s got quite a bit of support for it. There she is.

[01:01:31] Scott de Lange Boom: Yeah. So she’s positioned herself as kind of the. Mainstay, social conservative person in the race, but, but also someone who’s generated a fair bit of buzz from the grassroots.

[01:01:44] And like the first two guys on the list we were talking about, they, they ran very boring campaigns that like didn’t generate much, bud, right? From what I hear like Branca vile conservatives are. Even less lesbian Lewis, a lot more attention than I think anyone expected going into it.

[01:02:04] Ian Bushfield: I think maybe it comes around the first couple of things on our platform, which are ensuring fair nominations and more grassroots policies that conventions, um, when you talk to people who are involved in political parties, basically any color, one of the things you will hear a lot is that.

[01:02:23] Being a member is kind of pointless because you can never get the policies you actually care about to convention. And a lot of the important races are somewhat defacto stacked or in some cases, just like in some parties, only specific candidates can run. So yeah. Yeah. When you’re running as leader and you need the votes of members saying, I will give my members more choice and more power is appealing.

[01:02:50] Even if sometimes the members are dumb and make bad choices politically. Yeah.

[01:02:55] Scott de Lange Boom: Well, that’s the thing. It’s like someone always run on that platform and it’s never been like a huge, you know, the ticket to success. I can’t think of a leader who got elected primarily on a. I’m going to, you know, make the internal party working slightly better rather than I’m the best person to contest the next election, or I’m the person who like speech to the aid of the party, the best.

[01:03:19] Ian Bushfield: Yeah. The rest of Lewis’s platform is largely social conservative stuff. She talks about ending political correctness, but doesn’t really define either what that is or how she would do it. Uh, she would. Allow free votes on conscious issues. She would oppose the conversion therapy ban that’s been proposed and the remove trans rights from the human rights act.

[01:03:40] And she would stop expansions of medical assistance in dying. So yeah, pretty strong evangelical social conservative stuff.

[01:03:49] Scott de Lange Boom: Yeah, she was us, the other candidate on the air to mention the small modular reactors thing, which I found kind of interesting that it was picked up by not just one candidate.

[01:03:58] Ian Bushfield: Oh yeah.

[01:03:58] And she mentioned the UN global compact on migration, which was the like racist conspiracy thing of conservatives a couple of years ago. Fun times.

[01:04:08] Scott de Lange Boom: Well, should we move on to the person who’s taken that idea and run with it the most?

[01:04:12] Ian Bushfield: Yeah. Derek Sloan, who on paper should be ahead of Leslie Lewis because he is actually an elected and sitting MP also a lawyer, but I think screwed up early on and got shot his mouth off maybe a bit too much and became clear.

[01:04:29] He was the like person running on essentially all the same stuff as Leslie and Lewis, but like, The, um, obvious bigot of the two and whereas lesbian Lewis, I should mention as a black woman versus Derek Sloan is like exactly who you’d expect to be running on this platform.

[01:04:50] Scott de Lange Boom: Yeah. So, so he’s making the like very populous social conservative stuff, like the bread and butter, his campaign, um, Exactly what you did spat there, plus some, uh, COVID specific stuff. So he’s,

[01:05:05] Ian Bushfield: but first I should say he’s been endorsed by former leadership candidate who did actually quite well, Brad trust and a media type person as their event, which is quite the backing behind you.

[01:05:17] Scott de Lange Boom: Yeah. Uh, yeah, their excellence really leaned into the popular stuff. Uh, Particularly as COVID-19 come around. So he’s being like I vocal anti master part of his camp platform is no mandatory COVID vaccines, like very much kind of positioned himself in like the Trump mold in that way.

[01:05:39] Ian Bushfield: I also like this thing he has on here about making it illegal for an online platform to ban someone, unless they’ve been documented breaking the law.

[01:05:48] Like, yeah, it, she just wants the internet to be unusable.

[01:05:51] Scott de Lange Boom: Yeah. Like it, anyone who’s spent any time at all, like any social media, I don’t go back to like the original like forms and stuff. Get God off. I have a way to ban people. Otherwise it just becomes the most troll, infested place ever. It’s

[01:06:08] such a nonsensical idea.

[01:06:10] Ian Bushfield: Yeah. Luckily, he’s not going to win. My worry is Louis is like weirdly strong in this. If she edges out Mackay or O’Toole, she has a path to victory, I think she would have to edge out O’Toole on the first ballot.

[01:06:29] Scott de Lange Boom: Yeah. But. It’s unlikely, but yeah, she does clear that big hurdle. It does put a pretty strong position for round two,

[01:06:41] Ian Bushfield: beyond that any predictions.

[01:06:46] Scott de Lange Boom: So the McCain campaign said they’ve sold the most memberships. The polling puts them ahead. I think this is if I was to guess most likely going to be a third round narrow tool. Victory.

[01:07:02] Ian Bushfield: Yeah. I face. And where I’d probably put my money to, I would maybe throw a little bit of cash on the Leslie and Louis.

[01:07:14] Surprise victory,

[01:07:16] Scott de Lange Boom: which really well,

[01:07:17] Ian Bushfield: it would be a long shot bet. And maybe it makes some good money on there. That’s no, one’s given me good odds on it yet. Or good enough odds in any case?

[01:07:27] Scott de Lange Boom: My case. Yeah. Well, my case, like the super safe, like most, you know, thing that like the pundits who want to just play a safer predicting,

[01:07:36] Ian Bushfield: but, uh, yeah, he needs to win it on the first trial.

[01:07:39] It’s really? Yeah. Perfect McKay would really need to win it on the first round.

[01:07:44] Scott de Lange Boom: Yeah. Or, or come in like 49%. It just needed a scattering or second and third choice.

[01:07:51] Ian Bushfield: In any case at this point, I’m not sure any are quite strong enough to take on Trudeau, although O’Toole might do well, uh, McKay would need to do better than he campaigned on the early part of this leadership race.

[01:08:07] Scott de Lange Boom: Although like the campaign in the last half has been notably better. I think it could definitely,

[01:08:11] Ian Bushfield: it’s just been notably quiet

[01:08:14] Scott de Lange Boom: on all parts. Uh, Andrew Scheer was in absolute dud. It still won the popular vote and came fairly close to. Like D definitely did better than anyone protected. The conservators would have done looking at how the party was when they voted in their last leader.

[01:08:35] And that’s mostly because Trudeau shot himself in the foot and a couple of ways during that time. But like, there’s definitely a possibility that anyone who made some fairly marginal improvements and. Runs a campaign that isn’t entirely about driving up support among the base and actually winning seats and Ontario would win.

[01:08:59] And in that respect, either Mackay or tool would be fine and likely to give a respectable show and, and quite possibly win.

[01:09:08] Ian Bushfield: Well we’ll know, soon enough, and we’ll have to follow the adventures of the new leader. As they try and take on Justin Trudeau.

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Background in physics, works in non-profit, an excess of opinions.

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